A Special Report of the NRCS-Utah Snow Survey
By Jordan Clayton, U. S. Department of Agriculture
April 1 snowpack in Utah was the lowest on record. By a wide margin… • We combined historic snow course records dating back to 1930 with data from Utah’s SNOTEL network to evaluate how the April 1 snowpack in Utah compared with previous observations. 2026 represents, by far, the lowest April 1st snow water equivalent (SWE) measured in Utah over its entire period of record.
- The snowpack in 2026 is truly unprecedented. The next lowest April 1 SWE in Utah since 1930 was observed in 2015, but this was roughly 5x higher than our statewide SWE in 2026. After 2015, the next lowest April 1 SWE in Utah was observed in 1934, 1977, and 2018.
- For this analysis, we only included 15 snow courses that have been unimpacted by data quality issues (such as vegetation encroachment) over their historic period and were identified as best-suited for long term hydrologic study by Julander and Clayton (2015)1. These sites were manually measured once per month until the snow course was replaced with a SNOTEL weather station at that location. We merged the more recent SNOTEL data with the historical snow course values to create a continuous record at each location. The list of sites used in this analysis is provided below2.
- The lack of April 1 snowpack will strongly influence water supply forecasts for Utah. We will include updated forecast volumes in our forthcoming Water Supply Outlook Report. While this year’s snowpack conditions have created challenges for runoff modeling, NRCS’s new forecast system and platform is better-equipped than previous modeling systems to deal with anomalous snowpack seasons like 2026, including an AI-driven approach combining machine-learning, improved accuracy, and new forecast products for our water users, such as forecast evolution plots and weekly guidance forecasts for select locations.